Here are some predictions for 2009 by Jim Patrick, who as a social scientist and business executive was the founder of American Airlines ‘think tanks’ in the 1980′s. Jim discontinued his predictions in 2003 after a twelve year run due to other business interests. He published them annually on January 1st, for the coming year. His accuracy rate in the previous years was 79.8%. He looks at both current and historical demographic, economic, political and social data.
Here are just some of his predictions for 2009 by Jim Patrick, Millennium Productions, Inc. You can contact him at: jpatrick@hotmail.net
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2009: The Year of Global Reexamination – Jim Patrick
The era of “he who dies with the most toys” is over. Ethics exited stage right and greed was solidly at the helm as executives struggled to recover from the tech boom and 9/11.
Horizons were reduced to twelve months, then quarterly. The perfect storm joined with the perfect tsunami. Make your numbers now and the rewards will be huge. Miss the numbers, you are gone.
Now, a shift of values is upon us. Each of us will be tested. Many will lose their toys and some their homes. Expect to see massive numbers of businesses fail in the Q1 and Q2 of 2009.
Unemployed numbers will come close to the great depression.
Look for a more basic lifestyle, less stressful. Reeducation, training and tooling will be required. You will not see alien workers returned to their native countries as they will be our trainers as we rebuild skills and reinvent America.
The American electorate will not tolerate much longer a bailout of corporations for their sins with themselves, their employees and customers. Banks and lenders will be expected to find solutions in Q1 or strong voices will insist on re-regulation.
The result will not be a recovery, but new methods and processes. We will hit bottom in Q2 with dismal corporate earnings and government deadlock. The masses will demand change and enforcement to develop a new economy. You can’t go back to the future.
Layoffs will end after Q2 and innovation will begin. Our drive for survival will force us to find solutions. Basics in social lifestyle will boom as flea markets, swap meets and garage sales will abound.
Stores will reduce amount of shelving and floor space for retail. Expect more store brands and less big name brands. Electronic couponing will be an all time high. Retail loyalty programs will skyrocket.
Low mileage used cars will be readily available as people downsize, move closer to rapid transit to rid themselves of debt. A debt free movement will be most desired. Credit card companies who continue to use punitive interest rates will see their demise in Q3. Consumers will give up.
New, low priced vehicles will be introduced prior to August and will be imported with new labels from international sources. Fuel costs will continue to drop with demand through Q2, but expect huge increases in all forms of energy as supplies dwindle later.
A boom for technology and data processors showing innovative ideas.
A movement to urban centers or “Farmersville” as society readjusts and working from home increases. Fashion labels will be shunned and replaced with durable, functional and affordable.
Family camping and the usage of parks and lakes will grow profoundly. Fishing will see a huge growth for “food.” Gardens will be everywhere for food as well. Farmers will leave their fields fallow with the lack of credit driving up feed costs.
Animal shelters will be bulging as owners downsize to save on costs. Schools will move to a four day week, add an hour a day, to save cash.
Look for multiple families to share housing as they lose their homes. Costly retirement centers will refine their excessive charges or face calamity. Fix it your self will increase and professional technicians will see a decline in revenue. Look for older hotels to be re-skinned for senior citizen apartments. Home furnishings industry in for a tough year.
Used furniture, tools, appliances will be in demand.
Air travel is already being redesigned downward for smaller cities and less demand. Foreign investment limits will to be amended, allowing greater foreign ownership to raise capital.
Two rental car companies will fail. Look for regal packages at great resorts at low prices, just to stay in business.
Medical over the counter remedies will become the first line of defense. Wal*Mart’s in-house clinics will be popular and duplicated by grocers. Vets, dentists and specialists will see a negative impact as health insurance runs out on many in Q2.
What will be hot: Farmer’s markets, bikes, thrift stores, discounters, county fairs, local events, community banks, local mechanics (not dealers), mail order pharmacies, fast food alternatives, make your own clothes, gardens, resume writers, hiking and back packing, green anything, politicians who actually talk and listen to their people, cottages 1-2 bedrooms, wood stoves, used sewing machines, tools and lawnmowers, churches, kites, canning equipment and alcoholic beverages.
Summary: 2009 will see the biggest changes in any living person’s lifetime.
The ride will be confusing, a testing of ones character to stay focused and adventurous. New opportunity can be found if you are willing to seek it out. If you wait for someone to step in and solve the important issues in your life will be a total waste of time. Be proactive. USA will be seen differently throughout the world by the end of 2009. Every ethnic and demographic group should examine their contribution to our society, then drop their identity and adopt the identity as Americans during this crisis. We have an opportunity to be the Greatest or Worst Generation ever….the choice is ours.